my exceptionally unscientific oscar predictions:

Best Picture: In the Bedroom, A Beautiful Mind, The Lord of the Rings, Gosford Park, Moulin Rouge
i'm going to go with LotR here. oscar voters love epics, and with 13 nominations, LotR has a lot of steam behind it. A Beautiful Mind might be close, but looking at the track record of voting, if it's a long movie with lots of extras, landscape shots and drama, oscar is likely. :) and because it was a kick-ass movie
Best Actor: Russell Crowe (A Beautiful Mind), Sean Penn (I Am Sam), Will Smith (Ali), Denzel Washington (Training Day), Tom Wilkinson (In the Bedroom)
russell crowe, no doubt. he's been winning everything, his performance has been given rave reviews by critics and the public alike, and voters love to be able to give back-to-backs.
Best Actress: Halle Berry (Monster's Ball), Judi Dench (Iris), Nicole Kidman (Moulin Rouge), Sissy Spacek (In the Bedroom), Renée Zellweger (Bridget Jones's Diary)
sissy spacek. while i haven't seen in the bedroom, so many people are so certain she'll win that i'm going to go along with their "expert" opinions. but part of me wishes it would go to either nicole or renee because i absolutely loved both their movies and their performances in said movies.
Best Supporting Actor: Jim Broadbent (Iris), Ethan Hawke (Training Day), Ben Kingsley (Sexy Beast), Ian McKellen (The Lord of the Rings), Jon Voight (Ali)
where the hell did ethan hawke come from? he swooped in to steal hayden christensen's nomination (yes, i'm bitter). as far as i'm concerned, anyone but ethan can win. a lot of people are saying jim broadbent (i really want to see iris--note to self), but i'd like to see ian mckellen continue a LotR sweep. i'm going to go with mckellen on this one.
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Connelly (A Beautiful Mind), Helen Mirren (Gosford Park), Maggie Smith (Gosford Park), Marisa Tomei (In the Bedroom), Kate Winslet (Iris)
they'll probably follow the golden globes with this one and give it to jennifer connelly. that's my prediction. but i'd like to see kate winslet get it because i've always liked her.
Best Director: Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind), Ridley Scott (Black Hawk Down), Robert Altman (Gosford Park), Peter Jackson (The Lord of the Rings), David Lynch (Mulholland Drive)
peter jackson. i will be angry if anyone but peter jackson gets this award. the man deserves it, so give it to him.
Best Original Screenplay: Amélie, Gosford Park, Memento, Monster's Ball, Royal Tenenbaums,
i expect amelie will get it because everyone has gone crazy over this movie this year. i'd like to see the royal tenebaums get it, though.
Best Adapted Screenplay: A Beautiful Mind, Ghost World, In the Bedroom, The Lord of the Rings, Shrek
going with my LotR gut instinct here, although they might give it to a beautiful mind. but with all of the tolkien controversy with the adaptation and whatnot, i think it'll go to LotR.
Best Foreign-Language Film: Amélie (France), Elling (Norway), Lagaan (India), No Man's Land (Bosnia & Herzegovina), Son of the Bride (Argentina)
amelie. like any of the others stand a chance.
Best Animated Film: Shrek, Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius, Monsters, Inc.
shrek, hands down. everyone seemed to be able to get a kick out of it. mature, cute, silly, it's definitely going to win.

so there you have it, i'm going to stick by these and we'll see how i do once oscar time rolls around. damn, i almost make it sound like i know what i'm talking about, huh? :)